Brutal New Poll Shows Kid Rock Isn’t the ‘American Bad-Ass’ He Thinks He Is
An Earlier Poll Had Us Talking of Senator Kid Rock, A New Poll Crushes That Nightmare
In July of this year, talk of a run by musician Kid Rock to be a U.S. Senator in Michigan exploded after a stunning poll found him four points ahead of Democrat Debbie Stabenow. But a deeper look at that poll show it wasn’t quite what it seemed. And a new poll suggests the hypothetical race isn’t nearly as close to producing Senator Kid Rock as everyone first believed.
Stabenow leads the singer by nearly twenty points in a poll conducted by the Media Research Group. In a hypothetical match up, Robert “Kid Rock” Ritchie gets just 34 percent support to 52 percent for the Democrat Stabenow.
That total is just four points higher than a questionable poll released in July showing Ritchie with a 30 percent to 26 percent advantage.
The July poll, conducted by Delphi Analytica, was quickly scrutinized and found to be, shall we say, wanting by professional pollsters. Harry Enten at Five Thirty Eight took a dive into the polling company and essentially shredded the idea the poll was truly reliable. His illustration of why and why not to trust some mysteriously-backed polls is worth the time to self-educate. But as far as the Rock-Stabenow match up, he discovered some evidence the poll may have been put out by gamblers looking to make a buck.
McDonald believes that “Jones” and whoever may have helped him or her did so for two reasons. The first: to gain notoriety and troll the press and political observers. (The message above seems to support that theory.) The second: to move the betting markets. That is, a person can put out a poll and get people to place bets in response to it — in this case, some people may have bet on a Kid Rock win — and the poll’s creators can short that position (bet that the value of the position will go down). In a statement, Lee said Delphi Analytica was not created to move the markets. Still, shares of the stock for Michigan’s 2018 Senate race saw their biggest action of the year by far the day after Delphi Analytica published its survey.
And none of this polling may be the biggest problem for Kid Rock. A watchdog group filed a complaint with the Justice Department earlier this month arguing he was already breaking election finance law. The complaint says that, since Ritchie was selling merchandise advocating his run, he had to file disclosure paperwork regarding his finances. Not doing so is a violation of federal election law.
So, will we see Senator Kid Rock one day questioning experts from a committee chair on health care or tax policy? It’s not impossible, obviously. But it may not be as realistic as we were led to believe a few months ago.
Featured image via Leon Halip/Getty Images.
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