REPORT: The Math Looks Very, Very Good for Democrats in 2018
Dems Do The Math and 2018 Adds Up Big Time!
Dems are doing the math and it looks like a congress monopolized by Trumpets might be counting its days. Democrats need fewer than 90% of 2016’s dyed-in-the-wool blue voters to turn out to take back the house. Some tighter math indicates the Senate may be within reach as well. But the focus is on congressional numbers which seem likely to lean Democratic, breaking up a Republican stranglehold on Capitol Hill that has choked any semblance of progressive policies into submission. That’ll mean focusing resources, time and energy on organizing core Democrats and leaving Trump voters who may be swayed, hanging in the wind reaping what they sowed.
By picking up just 24 seats the house will tilt left. In 28 districts across the country, Clinton either came out on top or was within a 2 point margin of clinching that district- indicating that the politics in those swing districts might be easily changed.
Political wonks say they’re already seeing the shift. In both Kansas and Georgia special elections, the shake up is apparent. In Georgia’s 6th district, Democrat John Ossoff surprised pundits by his primary showing against Republican Karen Handel on April 18. Since there was no majority win ( Ossoff got just over 48% of the vote and Handel netted just under 20%) a June 20th general election will decide the outcome. Despite a state that was squarely in the Trump win column and a district whose previous congressman ,Republican Tom Price, resigned to join Trump’s cabinet as US Secretary of Health and Human Services, the odds on favorite, according to experts, is John Ossoff.
Historically,midterm elections favor the party that does not control the White House. Both George W. Bush and Barack Obama lost congressional control during their midterms. The primary turnout in Georgia’s 6th district special election, for instance, dropped by 51 % for Republicans compared to just a 25% drop by Democrats indicating the Republican complacency has set in. In Kansas’s special election, GOP turnout was down 62%. Democrat showing fell by just 32%.
These two district races are a microcosm of what midterms could look like and the strategy in play is already indicative of the effort it’ll take to motivate more Democrats to come out. In Georgia, Ossoff raised over $8.3 Million in just the first quarter of 2017, most of which came from outside the state. That’s more than previous democratic candidates have raised since 2000 combined. Outside interests see the importance of turning congressional seats blue and that strategy will likely spread to every midterm district up for grabs. If that motivation is successful and the historic complacency sets in for the party in power, 2018 just might be the year of the Democrat.
Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images
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Bruno Moore is a 2 time Democratic candidate for Florida State Senate. With a background in broadcasting he became most well known for his signature style of traffic reporting in South Florida before getting into politics in 2012. Between them he and his wife Megan have 5 children.