Today’s Analysis May Be The Canary In The House Republican Coalmine

Every reputable national poll shows Hillary Clinton with a significant lead over Donald Trump in the race for the White House, leading analysts to point out that no candidate in the modern era has surrendered a lead this big, this late in modern history. FiveThirtyEight pointed out this morning just how bleak the GOP prospects of maintaining control of the Senate are thanks to you-know-who atop the Republican ticket. But very few pundits or pollsters have examined the possibility of the Democrats successfully climbing their steepest hill — The House of Representatives — until now. And if one respected Republican pollster is to be believed, it’s time for the GOP to start worrying about the return of Speaker Pelosi and a Democratic House Majority.

On the surface, there has been very little reason to fully study the likelihood of the Democrats capturing a House majority. The Republicans, after all, control 247 seats — 61 more than the Democrats occupy.  And thanks to decades of gerrymandering and redistricting, it’s been widely held that the present makeup of the House is “wave proof“. But Public Opinion Strategies‘ Robert Blizzard, via his twitter account this morning, compared congressional data from 2012 juxtaposed against the performance of the Republican nominee and found that Donald Trump’s numbers may sink to such lows that enough Republican incumbents may be powerless to overcome them:

1/8: As I’ve been getting a lot of questions about Trump’s potential impact downballot – specifically on House — I looked at ’12 data…

— Robert Blizzard (@robertblizzard) August 16, 2016

2/8: I looked closely at the 81 “seats in play” in ’12 according to @NYTimes. These seats were rated as either lean D/toss-up/lean R

— Robert Blizzard (@robertblizzard) August 16, 2016

3/8: On average, across these 81 seats – the GOP congressional candidate ran ONE point better than Mitt Romney. ONE POINT.

— Robert Blizzard (@robertblizzard) August 16, 2016

4/8: Only in FIVE of 81 districts was there more than a ten point difference between Romney and the GOP candidate for Congress (either way)

— Robert Blizzard (@robertblizzard) August 16, 2016

5/8: Among those GOP’ers in competitive seats who won their race for Congress in ’12, they outran Romney by an average of 4.4 points

— Robert Blizzard (@robertblizzard) August 16, 2016

6/8: Among those GOP’ers who lost in these competitive seats, Romney outran them by an average of 4.5 points

— Robert Blizzard (@robertblizzard) August 16, 2016

7/8: So, when asked, I think a GOP’er can run about 5 points higher than Trump, give or take a few, depending on the district/candidate

— Robert Blizzard (@robertblizzard) August 16, 2016

8/8: So, if Trump’s <45% in Nov in a CD, that spells trouble for any GOP’er. Especially if they have failed to define their opponent

— Robert Blizzard (@robertblizzard) August 16, 2016

 

Turnout Is The Name Of The Game

Yes, a Democratic House Majority is in play, but only if Democrats do their part. As Blizzard’s analysis shows, certain districts will need to reject Trump by overwhelming majorities. Thankfully, the candidate keeps making that possibility more and more likely. Regardless of the rosier pictures being painted for November, Democrats can ill afford to rest on their laurels and assume victory, because there’s so much more at stake than just the White House. A Clinton Presidency with a cooperative house and a friendly senate can not only end the gridlock that has led to so many losing faith in our ability to govern, but to make the real change as outlined in the 2016 Democratic Platform.

And as a bonus, just imagine how angry the Trumpkins will be looking at Madame President, Madame Speaker and Vice President Kane for the next four years of the Union!

8K Shares:
Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *